Voting Strategies
It’s this time after an election when you reflect and think about how things went. One specific piece of thinking that was stimulated by talking to a number of you was –
How do we vote? What strategy do we put in to make our vote count most?
Many of you told me that you voted for me after a bunch of others and I thank you for including me in your vote. We most likely won’t see those votes showing up in the statistic unless everyone before my name recieved less first/second/third … preferences.
Some of you may be dissapointed about the outcome - me likely being eliminated within the first 5th or 7th candidates (my predication) and this despite you knowing that you and others have included me in your vote (list).
We have one vote
One thing is to remember that even so we are asked to label 1 to 7 to have our vote counted we only have one vote and we will, in general, help only one candidate into parliament. * Yes - technically if we vote for a candidate who fills their quota a fraction of our vote is counted towards another candidate, however unless a candidate fills two or more quotas the part that flows on to another candidate is small in comparison to the primary candidate.
I volunteered as a scrutineer previously and I noticed some typical voting pattern that are either in line with a specific party in the order of most prominent to least prominent (A), or aligned with the highest-ranking candidates of different parties (B). There is also the pattern of preferred medium to high profile voters (C). In those voting pattern, low profile candidates are listed far down the list or not at all, which can lead to vote exhaustion (see my summary of Kevin Bonham’s article further down). As all the highest profile candidates are listed at #1 or two, it is easy to see that my vote won’t flow far.
In the case of (C) I first support my medium profile candidate and then my vote flows on to the high profile candidate and it is easy to see how my vote supported two candidates with their numbers.
Voting patterns
These voting patterns are important for continuity and the status quo. They are not helpful for change or to develop new candidates within a party, across parties or independent.
In many of those voting pattern cases the first person listed is the person who gets elected and none of the people listed on 2, 3 or 4 ever will see my vote unless my first preference candidate resigns from parliament.
So the big question is with only one vote how can we maximise our impact?
I had a few questions that guided my vote:
· Who are low profile candidates who I would like to support to get into parliament and who needs to gain a larger profile to potentially be successful in another election?
· Which candidate do I think can make it but it may be tight?
· Which of the candidates I would like to see in parliament and whom I would like to elect?
· If my elected candidate leaves parliament for whatever reason, whom would I like to be elected in my recount?
· Who do I not want to see in parliament what so ever?
I already had my candidate who I thought will get elected (Preferred Candidate - PC).
I then chose two or three candidates who I would like to support to gain a profile. These could be for example because they have a more moderate view within a party or they are fellow independent candidates who have similar views to mine.
I then chose my medium candidates on a similar basis than the low-profile candidates.
I also thought about who of these medium candidates could potentially just get the edge and get into parliament and would that matter to me if the medium candidate would oust my secure candidate?
Last, I thought about my alternative secure and medium candidates whom I would see as a successor of my preferred candidate should he/she/they resigns from parliament.
Now I rank all my candidates in the order of the first preferences I would expect them to get. I list the person with the lowest preferences first and the rest in order.
If I don’t want some of the medium, potentially getting in candidates oust my Preferred Candidate I list them after my Preferred Candidate.
In the table below I created an artificial first preference and flow table.
In this example, my vote would flow from LP1 to LP2 to LP4 to M1 to M2 to my preferred candidate.
I also made sure that my backup candidate would not oust my preferred candidate, however should my preferred candidate not get in for some reason or has to resign my vote. I can also put in a second preferred more secure candidate for the case that my preferred candidate doesn’t get in, my vote flows onward to someone who gets in.
Following Kevin Bonham’s article, I continued labelling my vote with my lesser preferred candidates to the point where I only have candidates left whom I do not want see in parliament under any circumstance and I have no preference, which one I consider better or worse. In this case, I don’t give them a number.
Preference flow
Exhausting your vote
Kevin Bonham did an excellent piece outlining why it is important to label more than the required number of candidates (in this case 7). The crux is that if you stop labelling your vote gets exhausted while the preferences of others may flow towards a candidate whom you would not like to see in parliament. Kevin Bonham showed the example of Kristy Johnson and Sue Hickey vs Madelaine Olgivie. Jointly Kristy Johnson and Sue Hickey had 1606 votes less than Olgivie, while 2701 votes where exhausted of voters who likely didn’t wanted to see the liberals to take majority.
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/03/how-to-best-use-your-vote-in-2024.html
Summary
All patterns of voting are important and have their purpose - continuity - and - change. If everyone would start voting bottom up instead top to bottom, we suddenly would vote all the established politicians out of parliament, which would as bad as if no new people get up.
Another thing that is important and I would encourage YOU to
put your hand and stand as a candidate in an election,
join a party, make a difference and participate in the democratic process of preselecting candidates.
I can’t remember who said it, however true words “ be the change we want to see.” (Note Gandhi said soemthing similar)
It starts with us.
